Establish The Run Fantasy Football How To Win At NFL Player Props In 2025 (Episode 905 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Cort Smith)
8 snips
Sep 2, 2025 In this discussion, Mark Dankenbring, a fantasy expert focused on NFL and NBA player props, and Cort Smith, a seasoned prop analyst, share their insights on betting strategies for the upcoming 2025 NFL season. They delve into the evolving landscape of NFL player prop betting, the importance of timing and updates based on player performance, and the effect of Best Ball and Redraft leagues on betting lines. They also reveal the best days to place bets and the balance between betting volume and ROI, making it a rich resource for aspiring bettors.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Eight Seasons Of Public Prop Releases
- Cort Smith noted he began publicly releasing props around 2018 and has now done eight seasons of public-facing picks.
- That longevity illustrates both the market growth and the team's evolving strategy.
Market Sophistication And Mean/Median Shift
- NFL prop markets have become far more sophisticated over recent years, removing easy under plays that once existed.
- The median outcome is lower than the mean, so lines set to averages often leave different risk profiles than in the past.
Wait For Liquidity And Final Injury Reports
- Wait to bet into more mature, liquid markets on Friday–Sunday to get better limits and clearer injury info.
- Use Friday injury reports and Saturday projections to avoid early opener noise and secure larger stake sizes.