Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, and Cort Smith assess the NFL Player Prop betting landscape ahead of the 2025 NFL Season, discussing everything they have learned from decades of player prop betting, how sportsbooks are adapting, and how they will apply this knowledge in the upcoming season.
In this episode, we discuss:
- Whether it’s better prioritize betting volume or ROI
- What level of performance does it take to update prior projections and baselines?
- Why are Best Ball and Redraft League impacting betting lines?
- What analysis has told us about our processes over the years?
- What days of the week do we find provide the biggest edges?
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
2:29 - How The Markets Have Changed
8:14 - Market Openers
12:12 - When to Place Bet
18:28 - Expanding Markets & What to Look For
22:52 - Updating Priors & Baselines
25:42 - Best Ball & Redraft Hype Carrying Over Into Markets
32:44 - Edges We Should Be Betting & Volume vs. ROI
35:22 - Alt/Long Shot Bets
37:17 - Analyzing ETR’s Results Over The Last Four Years
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