The Commentary Magazine Podcast Israel on the Cusp
24 snips
Oct 6, 2025 
Jonathan Schanzer, a Senior Fellow and expert on Middle East security, joins the discussion to unpack Israeli strategies during the Gaza conflict. He analyzes the recent strike in Doha, highlighting regional reactions and Qatar's shifting stance on Hamas. The conversation dives into the complexities of hostage negotiations and the future of Hamas, debating potential outcomes from exile to active resistance. Schanzer also critiques international restraints on Israel's military actions while reflecting on the broader implications for Israeli politics and security.
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Trilateral Mechanism Adds Leverage
- The new trilateral mechanism (Israel–US–Qatar) gives Israel formal leverage to pressure Qatar on Hamas and media behavior.
- Security guarantees to Qatar may be generous, but the mechanism creates diplomatic accountability.
Three Possible Futures For Hamas
- Hamas faces multiple possible futures: exile and rebuilding, a last-stand 'blaze of glory', or negotiated dismantling under regional pressure.
- Regional actors' consensus and US pressure could force Hamas into decline even if uncertainty remains.
Hostage-First Negotiation Changes The War
- Negotiations flipped the sequence: hostages first, then phased military withdrawals and continued operations where needed.
- Israel can secure hostages while maintaining forces to eliminate tunnels and residual threats over time.