How Jane Technologies converted market uncertainty into calculable risk using a systematic framework | Socrates Rosenfeld

Jane Technologies built real-time inventory streaming technology that connects cannabis dispensary point-of-sale systems to online ordering platforms—solving a technical problem that hadn't been cracked before in the space. As a West Point graduate and Apache helicopter pilot who found cannabis instrumental in his transition from military service, Socrates co-founded Jane with his brother (a computer scientist) in 2014-2015, deliberately choosing the "pick and shovel" software play over plant-touching operations. Operating in a market where major VCs won't invest, credit card networks won't process payments, NASDAQ won't list your stock, and regulatory missteps can mean federal charges, Jane developed an extreme discipline around capital efficiency and risk management that offers tactical lessons for any founder building in constrained or emerging markets.

Topics Discussed:

• Jane's technical innovation: streaming real-time physical inventory from store shelves to online platforms
• Regulatory timing: the Cole Memo, state-by-state legalization momentum, and using adjacent players as risk indicators
• Risk taxonomy: creating frameworks to convert market uncertainty into scored, calculable risk decisions
• Strategic positioning as infrastructure provider versus licensed operator to manage legal exposure
• Customer evolution: illicit market operators meeting institutional players in the middle, and what survives
• Capital structure constraints driving operational discipline: no traditional payment rails, no public markets, limited institutional capital
• Competitive moat building through regulatory complexity rather than despite it
• Jane's decision framework on legal gray areas and why "maybe" always means "no"

GTM Lessons For B2B Founders:

• Use adjacent players as regulatory canaries, then move decisively: Jane launched after observing the 2013 Cole Memo and early state legalization in Colorado and Oregon, but critically didn't move until seeing Weedmaps and Leafly operate without legal consequences. Socrates explains: "We also didn't want to be the first...No one seemed to be getting thrown in jail at that time. And so we said, okay, let's get some good lawyers. Let's be able to understand our left and right limits, but let's go do this now." This isn't about being first-mover or fast-follower—it's about identifying specific de-risking events that signal the inflection point. Jane watched for: (1) regulatory clarity documents, (2) expansion velocity across state markets, (3) other operators achieving scale without enforcement action. Founders in emerging categories should map these trigger events explicitly rather than relying on intuition about timing.
• Build compliance infrastructure as a moat, not overhead: Jane deliberately avoided "touching the plant" to stay outside the highest-risk licensing category, positioning as B2B infrastructure rather than a licensed operator. While competitors took shortcuts on compliance to move faster, Jane developed the internal discipline to work within state regulatory frameworks and alongside regulators themselves. The company's philosophy: "go where it's hard." When regulatory complexity is high and shortcuts are tempting, building the compliant solution that becomes the standard creates a defendable position. As markets mature and enforcement tightens, shortcut companies fail while compliant infrastructure survives. The tactical implication: in regulated markets, treat compliance work as product moat-building, not cost center overhead. Structure legal and compliance as core product development.
• Convert uncertainty into scored risk through systematic information gathering: Socrates articulates the critical distinction: "There's a real difference between risk and uncertainty. Uncertainty is unknown...you try to position yourself to make uncertainty known so that you can decide and score it. Hey, is this a reward or is this a risk?" Jane's framework: (1) identify the unknown factors, (2) gather information to convert unknowns into knowns, (3) score both upside and downside explicitly, (4) decide whether the scored risk justifies action. The company wouldn't cross lines even when competitors did because certain risks (federal charges, business termination) represented non-recoverable outcomes regardless of upside. Implementation: maintain a risk register where each strategic decision explicitly documents what's uncertain versus what's a calculated risk, with clear go/no-go thresholds based on downside scenarios.
• Capital constraints create competitive advantages through forced discipline: Operating without access to Sequoia checks, IPO paths, or Visa processing meant Jane had to master unit economics and profitability early. Socrates reflects: "This is stuff that traditionally, you go public, you raise billions of dollars, and then you decide how to get profitable. Then you decide what your cost of capital is and free cash flow, man, we had to learn that at a very young age." The result: "really good fundamentals" that scale as the business grows. While competitors in less constrained markets can mask poor unit economics with cheap capital, Jane built sustainable business mechanics from day one. The tactical approach: "ruthlessly prioritize what you do and do not build" and "scrutinize every dollar that comes in and out of the business." For founders with capital access, consider artificially constraining spend to force the same discipline rather than optimizing for growth at any cost.
• Optimize for survival duration, not growth velocity: Jane's entire strategy centers on outlasting competitors in a market where shortcuts eventually kill companies. Socrates: "This is not a game of speed. This is not a game of size. This is a game of endurance. And you want to just last...if we make a fatal decision and we get arrested or we do a felony or something like that, then the business is probably over." The company explicitly embraced being early, knowing they'd face years before the market fully matured, but positioned to compound advantages while others burned out. Their decision framework: if a strategic choice risks ending the game entirely (legal exposure, existential financial risk, fundamental trust violation), it's off the table regardless of upside. For markets with long regulatory or adoption cycles, model scenarios for 10+ year timelines and ensure your burn rate and strategic decisions support that duration rather than optimizing for 18-month milestones.

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