Macro Voices MacroVoices #514 Darius Dale: 2026, Fasten Your Seat belts For Take-off
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Jan 8, 2026 
Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro and a macro strategist, reveals intriguing predictions for 2026, suggesting it will ultimately be a prosperous year despite potential turbulence in the early months. He highlights historic bullish positioning risks and compares the current AI capital expenditure boom to the dot-com bubble. Darius discusses the likelihood of macroeconomic headwinds, potential fiscal expansions, and the implications of shifts in monetary policy. His systematic KISS model provides actionable investment advice amidst this complex landscape.
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Historic Crowded Bullish Positioning
- 42Macro's positioning model shows historic bullish crowding that raises short-term correction risk.
- Darius warns crowded credit positioning often precedes adverse market outcomes within 1–3 months.
Macro Cycles Indicate Near-Term Choppiness
- Four of six macro cycles (growth, inflation, monetary, fiscal, liquidity, positioning) are current headwinds.
- Darius expects those monetary, fiscal and liquidity headwinds to likely flip to tailwinds in 3–6 months.
Bond Market Sees Lower Inflation Risk
- Bond-market inflation expectations have declined, reducing the odds of a Fed-driven inflation spike.
- Market-implied neutral rates imply the Fed remains restrictive versus neutral by ~64 bps today.