Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Research, and Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, dive into how eco data influences market dynamics. They explore the equity bull run and its slow start to 2025, discussing rising Treasury yields and their impact on investor sentiment. The intricacies of measuring inflation through CPI and PCE are unpacked, highlighting the Fed's strategies in response to fluctuating economic indicators. The duo also emphasizes the importance of integrating sustainability into policymaking for effective market shaping.
Current market valuations are more moderate compared to past decades, but concentrated power of a few mega-cap stocks poses sustainability risks.
Rising interest rates create a challenging environment for equities, potentially disrupting bullish trends and impacting investor sentiment significantly.
Deep dives
Valuation Trends and Historical Perspectives
The discussion focuses on the current valuations of major companies, particularly within the Nifty Fifty segment, which consists of the top-performing stocks in the market. Unlike past decades, where stocks traded at significant price-to-earnings (PE) multiples that were unsustainable, today's valuations are more moderate, sitting at around 25-30% above broader market averages. However, specific mega-cap stocks like the MAG 7 are noted for trading at a much higher PE of approximately 38, indicating a potential return to historical extremes. Despite these elevated valuations, rising earnings estimates provide fundamental support that could potentially sustain these prices in the near term.
Market Breadth and Narrowness Concerns
A key insight revolves around the narrowing breadth of the market, leading to concerns regarding its stability and sustainability. In previous months, the majority of stocks were in uptrends, but recently, only about half have been able to maintain positive momentum above their 200-day moving averages. This lack of breadth is reminiscent of earlier periods, specifically 2023, where a few major players dominated market movement while broader participation waned. Although there are signs of improving earnings growth across sectors, the dominance of a few companies raises questions about the overall health of the market.
Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Equity Valuations
Rising interest rates play a crucial role in shaping equity market dynamics and investor sentiment. As bond yields approach significant thresholds, equities may face increased pressure as they have to compete for investor capital. Historical data indicates that when bond rates rise to levels around 4.5% to 5%, stock markets tend to become volatile, disrupting existing bullish trends. This situation suggests that while current earnings growth may support stock prices, continually rising rates could create a challenging environment for further bullish momentum.
Stage of the Current Bull Market
The discussion concludes with an analysis of the current bull market's longevity and momentum. The bull market's duration is approximately 27 months, with a gain of around 75%, but historical data shows that most bull markets last around 30 months with higher percentage gains. Experts suggest that we may be entering the later stages of this bull run, particularly as key market drivers shift from valuation momentum to the actual earnings being reported. This analysis points to a more cautious outlook for continued gains as market participants consider the implications of interest rates and potential Fed policy changes.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJanuary 13th, 2025 Featuring:
Jurrien Timmer, Director: Global Macro at Fidelity Research, joins for an extended discussion about the equity bull run, the slow start to the year in markets, and choppiness in 2025
Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander, discusses recent US economic data and reacts to PPI
Sarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, discusses how markets are pricing in recent eco data and whether continued good news will be bad news for markets