In this discussion, John Horn, an Ex-McKinsey consultant and Harvard-educated economist, shares insights from his book on predicting competitor behavior. He emphasizes cognitive empathy as a key tool for understanding competitors' motives and actions. The conversation explores techniques like war games and mock negotiations to sharpen strategic decision-making. Horn also highlights the pitfalls of over-relying on AI for competitive analysis, advocating for a blend of human insight and analytical frameworks to stay ahead in business.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
Clients Mislabel Competitors as Irrational
John Horn shares how clients often dismiss competitors as irrational leaders of risky business choices.
With probing questions, he reveals almost all seemingly irrational moves have clear rationale when viewed from the competitor's perspective.
insights INSIGHT
Rationality Behind Differentiation
Competitive actions that seem irrational often stem from competitors trying to differentiate and find an edge.
Understanding that every competitor seeks to be different helps explain their unique strategies as rational.
insights INSIGHT
Rationality as Perspective Alignment
Rationality means choices align with what a competitor would logically do given their goals and context.
It's not about being right or successful, but about decisions fitting a competitor's perspective and objectives.
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How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen
Rita McGrath
Only the paranoid survive
Andrew S. Grove
In 'Only the Paranoid Survive', Andrew S. Grove discusses the concept of 'Strategic Inflection Points' – moments when the balance of forces shifts significantly, requiring businesses to adapt rapidly to survive. Grove draws from his experiences at Intel, including the transition from memory chips to microprocessors and the handling of the Pentium flaw, to illustrate how these inflection points can be managed to emerge stronger. The book emphasizes the importance of constant vigilance, experimentation, and decisive leadership in navigating these critical moments of change.
Lead in Disrupt
Lead in Disrupt
Charles O'Reilly III
Michael Tushman
Inside the Competitor's Mindset
Inside the Competitor's Mindset
John Horne
Inside the Competitor's Mindset: How to Predict Their Next Move and Position Yourself for Success (MIT Press, 2023) offers a roadmap to help leaders predict, understand, and react to their competitors’ moves. It is a valuable tool to help companies stay ahead of their competitors when the competition is intensifying. To make the right choice when a competitor is working hard to prevent it is difficult. This book demystifies the process. For organizations developing systematic tools to effectively predict competitor behavior, this book provides a powerful, fact-based approach to building insight into A must-read for anyone seeking to better understand their competitors. This book shares proven methods for thinking like the competition and understand why they act the way they do. The keys are cognitive empathy and an approach that focuses on why competitors behave as they do. The book presents a systematic approach to competitive intelligence that starts with frameworks that get inside a competitor’s mindset, predict their reactions and assess their actions. The book stresses the importance of collecting forward-looking, predictive data; explains how to use war games, Black Hat exercises, mock negotiations, and premortems to build competitive insight; and makes the case for creating a dedicated competitive insight function within the organization. Reading this book will enable you to anticipate how competitors will react to moves you make. It ingeniously applies lessons from archaeologists, paleontologists, NICU nurses, and homicide detectives to better gather and analyze information when it is not possible to ask direct questions;
Alfred Marcus, Edson Spencer Professor of Strategy and Technology University of Minnesota Carlson School of Management.
New Books in Economics 
