Saxo Market Call US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station.
11 snips
Mar 7, 2025 
In this discussion, Ole Hansen, Saxo's Head of Commodity Strategy, shares insights on the escalating bear market risks in the U.S. and the surge of the Euro. He delves into the current dynamics of the oil and commodities markets, highlighting the complexities caused by tariffs and innovation in mining technology. The conversation also touches on geopolitical tensions affecting market fluctuations and the implications of U.S. foreign policy on global economics, focusing on relationships with Russia and China.
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US Bear Market Risks
- The NASDAQ 100, breaking below its 200-day moving average, signals higher bear market risks.
- This sell-off, though dramatic, is slower than previous ones, spanning only 11 days compared to 17 days in the past.
German Fiscal Stimulus Impact
- Germany's fiscal stimulus caused the largest 10-year Bund move since 1990, impacting European yields significantly.
- This contrasts with US yields and boosts the Euro.
Conflicting Economic Pressures in Europe
- The ECB's rate cuts and Germany's long-term fiscal stimulus create conflicting economic pressures.
- While bullish on European growth, the tightening long-end yield curve could cause a short-term slowdown.