Saxo Market Call
US bear market risks ratchet higher. EUR train has left the station.
Mar 7, 2025
In this discussion, Ole Hansen, Saxo's Head of Commodity Strategy, shares insights on the escalating bear market risks in the U.S. and the surge of the Euro. He delves into the current dynamics of the oil and commodities markets, highlighting the complexities caused by tariffs and innovation in mining technology. The conversation also touches on geopolitical tensions affecting market fluctuations and the implications of U.S. foreign policy on global economics, focusing on relationships with Russia and China.
28:54
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Quick takeaways
- The US stock market faces increasing bear market risks as the NASDAQ 100 breaks below its critical technical indicator, the 200-day moving average.
- Germany's fiscal stimulus may stimulate growth, yet its impact could be delayed due to the ECB's cautious monetary policies and rising living costs.
Deep dives
Market Dynamics and Technical Indicators
The current market is facing a significant downturn, as evidenced by the NASDAQ 100 breaking below the critical 200-day moving average. This technical level has historically served as a reliable indicator, and the recent sell-off has entered a particularly dramatic phase. Notably, the market has experienced a seesawing action before falling sharply, reminiscent of past volatility, but it has only been 11 days into this current sell-off. There is uncertainty about how the market will evolve from this point, especially considering that no technical indicators guarantee accuracy in predicting market movements.
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