Switched On Oil, Gas and Metals in 2026: What to Watch This Year
Jan 14, 2026
David Doherty, Head of Natural Resources Research at BloombergNEF, and Enrique Gonzalez, Head of US Gas at BloombergNEF, dive into the shifting landscape of commodity markets. They discuss looming oil surpluses, emerging petrochemical dynamics, and concerns around Venezuela's heavy oil production. Enrique highlights the rapid expansion in U.S. LNG capacity and the potential for prolonged low prices due to oversupply. Meanwhile, David warns of a critical copper shortage driven by the electric vehicle boom, emphasizing the complex interplay of market forces.
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Oil Surplus Building Without Immediate Price Crash
- Global oil looks set to move into a surplus in 2026 driven by OPEC returning production and new producers like Guyana and Brazil.
- Prices may trend down toward $50/barrel but market behavior (storage, shipping) can mute immediate price falls.
Shale Growth Slows But Becomes More Efficient
- US shale output will keep growing, but at a much slower, more efficient pace rather than collapsing.
- Producers now run with capital discipline and technological gains that raise output per dollar spent.
Petchem Capacity Shift To Asia Pressures Western Plants
- Petrochemical capacity is shifting to China, India and Southeast Asia, squeezing margins and forcing closures in Europe and the US.
- China builds capacity to solve domestic shortfalls and then exports the surplus into global markets.