At Any Rate Global FX: Japan focus, US/China, PMIs, Fed/ECB
7 snips
Oct 24, 2025 
Junya Tanase, a Japan-focused economist and FX strategist, dives into Japan's macro landscape and its impact on global markets. He breaks down Prime Minister Takaichi's speech, highlighting its limited insights on fiscal policy. The conversation shifts to anticipated Bank of Japan meetings and their implications for the USD/JPY exchange rate. Other topics include the significance of Japan in the central bank calendar, potential outcomes from the upcoming US-China summit, and the Fed's risk management leading up to key decisions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Gold–FX Relationship Has Decoupled
- FX barely reacted to gold moves this year because the historical gold–FX relationship has decoupled recently.
- Traders now focus on US data uncertainty, funding-market shocks, and geopolitics for FX moves.
Takaichi Speech Was Largely Status Quo
- PM Takaichi's speech added no new policy detail and gave no clear hint on BOJ interventionism.
- Japan economists still expect the BOJ to hike next week and see fiscal room as limited near term.
Prepare For USD/JPY Moves Around BOJ Odds
- Expect dollar/yen to move based on BOJ hike odds before the meeting; a priced-in hike would push USD/JPY below 150.
- If the BOJ hikes unexpectedly, expect an initial yen rally toward 147–148 and further moves if terminal-rate views rise.