Michael Collins, acting chair of the National Intelligence Council, brings 28 years of intelligence experience focused on East Asia. He discusses how the intelligence community shapes policymaking and the unique challenges of assessing China’s military capabilities. The conversation highlights the importance of collaboration with external experts and the need for transparency in national security narratives. Collins also explores the concept of 'narrative intelligence' and strategies to enhance long-term forecasting, addressing complexities in the U.S.-China relationship.
The National Intelligence Council emphasizes a collective analytic view to influence high-level policymaking on global issues, particularly regarding China.
Collins highlights the importance of adopting different intelligence collection strategies for non-state actors versus nation-state adversaries amid diverse global dynamics.
Increasing collaboration and transparency across the intelligence community is essential for effectively countering misinformation and enhancing analytical capabilities in today’s competitive landscape.
Deep dives
Michael Collins' Career and the Role of the National Intelligence Council
Michael Collins has spent nearly three decades in the intelligence community, primarily focusing on East Asia. His various roles have included managing the CIA's East Asian Pacific Mission Center and serving as the Chief Strategy Officer at the CIA. Collins emphasized that the National Intelligence Council (NIC) represents the collective analytic view of the entire U.S. intelligence community, unlike individual agencies. The NIC is responsible for producing crucial assessments, such as national intelligence estimates and global trends reports that project into the future.
Understanding China's Strategic Competition
Collins highlighted the importance of recognizing the inherent norms driving competition with China, particularly under Xi Jinping's leadership. The conflict is not just about geopolitical competition but also fundamentally about contrasting governance norms and values. He articulated the need to deeply understand China and its regional dynamics, viewing it not merely as a monolith but as part of a broader East Asia context. Additionally, he noted the necessity of focusing on global competition and the unrest experienced in other regions, instead of being solely fixated on China.
Collaborative Relationships in Intelligence Analysis
Collins underscored that the key to effective intelligence lies in fostering collaborative relationships across the intelligence community and with external experts. He stressed that leveraging the unique strengths and insights of analysts from different agencies and sectors can lead to more comprehensive and nuanced analyses. This federated approach allows for better understanding of global dynamics by incorporating diverse perspectives, particularly when analyzing regions and issues that are complex. Ultimately, he argued that increasing collaboration is crucial to enhancing the analytical capabilities required to navigate contemporary challenges.
Integrating Commercial Success into National Security Conversations
Collins pointed out that an expanding definition of national security should encompass commercial and economic dimensions, beyond traditional military perspectives. Understanding the strength of U.S. commercial entities is integral in other domain areas where national interests are at stake. He advocated for an intelligence approach that not only considers hard power but also evaluates business and technology dynamics. By comprehending the competitive landscape of various sectors, intelligence agencies can better frame strategies for U.S. interests as they interact with global adversaries.
The Value of Transparent Engagement and Narrative Warfare
Collins discussed the increasing significance of transparency and narrative engagement in today's intelligence landscape. He noted that genuine engagement should focus on the truth, challenging misinformation propagated by authoritarian regimes such as China. Acknowledging the vital role of narratives in shifting perceptions, Collins emphasized the need to highlight factual information that can foster understanding and align with democratic values in global discourse. As a strategy, promoting transparency and continuing the dialogue about global issues can help build credibility and counter adversarial narratives effectively.
Michael Collins is the acting chair of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). He has spent 28 years in the intelligence community, starting as a career analyst in the CIA focused on East Asia before moving into leadership roles. He served as chief of staff for the CIA deputy director and worked on modernization efforts in the agency.
We discuss…
How the intelligence community informs high-level policymaking,
Why different institutional approaches are needed to collect intelligence on non-state actors vs nation-state adversaries,
Challenges in assessing China’s technological and military capabilities,
“Narrative Intelligence” and areas where intelligence agencies have a unique edge,
Strategies for improving long-term forecasting and avoiding groupthink.
Outro music: Scorpions - Wind Of Change (Youtube Link)
