The State of AI in Different Countries — An Overview
May 13, 2023
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This podcast discusses the potential impact of AI regulation on technological advancement, focusing on the United States and its dominance in AI development. It explores hindrances in China's progress and the global AI landscape. The podcast also examines the state of AI research across countries, highlighting China's leadership in publications. It discusses the advantage of data in China and the semiconductor supply chain dominated by the US. The significance of knowledge diffusion and AI progress on countries is explored, along with the issue of plagiarism in AI research and the growing trend of global AI regulation.
36:26
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Quick takeaways
The United States and its allies have a significant lead in AI research, allowing for regulation without slowing down progress.
China produces a high volume of AI publications, but the United States produces higher quality research.
Deep dives
Top AI labs and models are based in the United States and the United Kingdom
The United States and the United Kingdom host the top AI labs and models. OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and MetaAI are leading the way in terms of product performance and funding. Most of the significant machine learning models, as identified by Stanford's AI index report, also originate from the United States. Additionally, the United States dominates the list of the 100 most cited AI papers, showcasing its strong influence in AI research.
Key breakthroughs in AI research mainly come from the United States and Canada
Major breakthroughs in modern AI research, such as deep learning, GANs, reinforcement learning, and transformer architectures, have predominantly emerged from the United States and Canada. Notable contributions include AlexNet, deep convolutional networks, AlphaGo, and advancements in unsupervised learning. Researchers from the United States and Canada have a significant influence on shaping the field of AI.
China leads in scientific publications and AI patent filings
China leads the world in terms of scientific publications and AI patent filings. However, it's important to note that while China produces a high volume of publications, the United States produces the majority of the top publications, indicating a higher quality of research. Furthermore, the United States ranks first in highly cited patent applications, suggesting a higher level of patent quality. These factors complicate the rankings and metrics when assessing national AI capabilities.
Factors favor United States and allies in maintaining AI advantage
The United States and its allies possess several advantages in maintaining their AI advantage. The United States invests significantly more in AI than any other country and has greater access to top AI talent. The semiconductor supply chain, which is vital for AI development, is dominated by the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the Netherlands. Export controls imposed by the United States and allied countries also limit Chinese companies' access to advanced AI chips. Political and economic factors, such as censorship and limitations on data availability, might hinder AI progress in China.
Some are concerned that regulating AI progress in one country will slow that country down, putting it at a disadvantage in a global AI arms race. Many proponents of AI regulation disagree; they have pushed back on the overall framework, pointed out serious drawbacks and limitations of racing, and argued that regulations do not have to slow progress down.
Another disagreement is about whether countries are in fact in a neck and neck arms race; some believe that the United States and its allies have a significant lead which would allow for regulation even if that does come at the cost of slowing down AI progress. [1]
This overview uses simple metrics and indicators to illustrate and discuss the state of frontier AI development in different countries — and relevant factors that shape how the picture might change.