When Russia invaded Ukraine in February of last year, the general consensus was that Ukraine was outgunned, disorganized, and unable to mount any type of meaningful resistance. The expectation was that Ukraine would fall quickly – maybe even within days of the assault. But, that didn’t happen. And, it’s not like Russia struggled – Ukraine took the fight directly to Russia, denying a quick win, holding territory that experts expected to fall effortlessly, and even reclaimed territory that Russia had taken. Ukraine’s allies in Europe, the United States, and Canada provided an unexpected level of support that has been maintained, and Russia has become a pariah on the global stage. 

Nothing is certain at this point, and there are signs that Russia may be regrouping and preparing for another overwhelming assault on Ukraine in the next couple of months. But, the debate has shifted from one of when Ukraine falls and how the rest of the world will react, to one focused on the strong possibility that Russia might actually lose the war. And, if that happens, I wonder that looks like.

So, today I’m talking to Dr. Alexander Motyl, professor of political science at Rutgers University and a widely regarded and respected expert on Soviet and post-Soviet politics. He has published extensively – academically, as well as fiction and non-fiction books. One of his recent works in Foreign Policy – an article titled It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse - is the catalyst for today’s discussion. We talk about the possibility that Ukraine wins this war, what that might look like for Russia, and how the rest of the world should be preparing for this outcome.

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