Redfin: The Great “Reset” Starts in 2026

Dec 9, 2025

In this discussion, Chen Zhao, Head of Economic Research at Redfin, shares intriguing insights into the housing market, projecting a significant reset starting in 2026. She reveals 11 essential predictions, including the stabilization of mortgage rates and slower home price growth. Affordability is set to improve as wages outpace prices, providing relief for buyers and landlords alike. Zhao highlights how AI may transform real estate matchmaking, while regional market dynamics are expected to shift. This friendly chat unpacks what the future holds for homeowners and investors.

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insights

INSIGHT

Slow Multi-Year Housing Reset

Redfin predicts a slow multi-year "Great Housing Reset" starting in 2026 where affordability gradually improves.
This reset relies on mortgage rates and slower price growth rather than a sudden crash.

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ADVICE

Plan For Low-Six Mortgage Rates

Expect mortgage rates to hover in the low sixes and plan finances accordingly.
Avoid banking on sustained sub-6% rates or a return to 7% next year.

insights

INSIGHT

Slower Price Growth Enables Affordability

Home-price growth has slowed from ~5% to ~2–3% as markets shift toward buyers.
Slower price growth plus wage gains will be the primary path back to affordability.

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Headline: The Great Housing Reset Begins

00:41 • 2min

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Mortgage Rates Likely Stable in Low Sixes

02:36 • 5min

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Home Prices Slowing, Not Crashing

07:29 • 5min

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Affordability Improves As Wages Outpace Prices

12:21 • 2min

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Sales Volume Will Inch Up Slightly

13:53 • 3min

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Rents Expected To Reaccelerate Modestly

17:18 • 4min

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Housing Policy Becomes Central in Politics

21:47 • 5min

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Refinances and Renovations Rise

27:05 • 5min

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Regional Winners and Losers in 2026

31:49 • 3min

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Climate Risk Shapes Local Choices

35:09 • 3min

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Industry Shift: MLSs and NAR Focus Change

37:57 • 55sec

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AI as Real-Estate Matchmaker

• Mentioned in 17 episodes

Real Estate by the Numbers

A Complete Reference Guide to Deal Analysis

Dave Meyer

J Scott

This book, written by J Scott and Dave Meyer, provides a detailed guide on how to analyze real estate deals using key metrics such as cash flow, compound interest, and other financial indicators. It is designed for both novice and experienced investors, offering real-world examples from the authors' own portfolios to help readers apply the concepts in practice. The book covers various aspects of real estate investing, including deal analysis, tracking progress, and adapting strategies to changing market conditions.

Redfin just called it. The housing market will “reset” in 2026…or at least it’ll be the start of it.

Chen Zhao, head of economics research and a returning guest on the show, has 11 predictions she and her team have formulated for the 2026 housing market. A long, slow period of progress could be upon us, as buyers get what they’ve been asking for: better affordability, a more normal market, and the chance to own where there’s work.

But what does this really mean? Will mortgage rates fall? Will home prices drop? We’re going through each of the 11 predictions with Chen, discussing prices, rates, rents, refinances, transaction volume, and even how AI could become the “matchmaker” for Americans looking for their first or next property.

Make no mistake, this is good news for many, and could be just the start of a cycle that finally puts average Americans in the position to purchase a home. But, for real estate investors and landlords, there could be another big benefit coming in 2026, one that has a direct impact on your cash flow.

In This Episode We Cover

Redfin’s 2026 housing market predictions (prices, mortgage rates, and more!)

The great “reset” that is coming for the housing market (it’s already begun)

Rent growth returns? Struggling landlords could get some relief next year

The best and worst real estate markets that Redfin is forecasting for 2026

The AI effect on real estate and why more buyers are using bots to find homes

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join BiggerPockets for FREE

Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area

Redfin’s 2026 Predictions: Welcome to The Great Housing Reset

Dave's BiggerPockets Profile

Grab Dave’s Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"

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