PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast
Two elephants – tariffs and China growth
Jan 20, 2025
Stefanie Holtze-Jen, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, shares expert insights on two crucial topics: China's economic growth and the impact of U.S. tariffs on Asia. She highlights Asia’s quicker economic expansion compared to developed markets and discusses China's three-pillar strategy for economic management. Stefanie provides a neutral short-term outlook for Chinese equities while emphasizing a positive long-term growth potential, addressing risks and market dynamics that investors should consider.
11:41
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Quick takeaways
- Asia's economies, led by China and India, are projected to outpace developed markets, contributing significantly to global growth.
- Despite concerns over U.S. tariffs, China's economic adjustments may mitigate impacts, allowing for cautious optimism in Chinese equities.
Deep dives
Asia's Role in Global Growth
Asia is positioned as a significant growth engine for the world, with the regional economies expected to outpace developed markets. Predictions indicate a modest global growth of 3.1% in 2025, driven largely by emerging economies such as China and India, forecasting growth rates of 4.2% and 6.5%, respectively. Notably, the earnings per share outlook for Asia is anticipated to be competitive with that of the US, indicating a strong performance of the MSCI Asia ex Japan index. This trend emphasizes the importance of Asia's economic stability and growth potential in a landscape where developed economies are expected to grow at slower rates.
