
Making Sense
From tariffs to tightness: What’s happening in the US housing market?
Apr 15, 2025
John Sim, head of Securitized Products Research at J.P. Morgan, untangles the intricate web of the U.S. housing market. The conversation dives into how tariffs impact construction costs and affect home prices. Sim discusses the locked-in mortgage rates benefiting current homeowners, while renters face growing affordability challenges. They also predict mortgage rates could drop to 5.75% by the end of 2025, amidst changing economic conditions. Finally, rising insurance costs and consistent tenant retention rates shape rental market dynamics.
16:44
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Quick takeaways
- The U.S. housing market is currently tight, with demand outpacing supply by 4 million units, raising affordability concerns for both renters and buyers.
- Tariffs and rising construction costs are contributing to supply constraints, potentially increasing rents and allowing landlords greater pricing power in the market.
Deep dives
Current State of the U.S. Housing Market
The U.S. housing market is currently experiencing a high utilization rate of approximately 90%, reflecting an increase in demand that surpasses supply by roughly 4 million units. This tight market has significant implications for both renters and buyers, as affordability becomes a pressing issue. Although rental supply saw a notable increase in 2024, keeping rents relatively stable, the overall tightness has contributed to ongoing discussions about housing affordability. This situation underscores the complexity of the housing dynamics, particularly as they relate to household income and the broader economic factors at play.
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