Odd Lots Big Take: Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade
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Aug 31, 2025 Annie Massa, a Bloomberg Wealth reporter, joins the discussion about how the engagement of Taylor Swift and NFL star Travis Kelsey has ignited a surge in prediction markets. The conversation dives into the ethics of betting on celebrity futures and the rapid rise of online platforms dedicated to such predictions. They further explore regulatory challenges these markets face, including legal issues like an FBI raid, while shedding light on the broader societal impacts and biases within prediction trades. Tune in for a fascinating look at pop culture's influence on finance!
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Office Bet On Celebrity Breakup
- Francesca joked she bet friends their team would break up in 2025 during an office pool.
- She clarified no money was involved in that informal wager.
Prediction Markets Spread Beyond Politics
- Prediction markets have rapidly expanded from politics into pop culture and personal events like Taylor Swift's engagement.
- These platforms now register large trading volumes and influence public interest in real-world outcomes.
Real-Time Money Reflects Public Expectations
- Kalshi saw roughly $80,000 in bets within hours of Swift and Kelce's engagement and about $160,000 by Thursday.
- Market odds shifted quickly, with about a 7% chance of marriage by year-end at one point.