Impact of Political Conventions on Election Predictions

Political conventions, while often stirring enthusiasm among party supporters, have limited effects on long-term polling outcomes. Although recent polls show Kamala Harris with a slight advantage in battleground states, the margins are thin, and traditional polling errors can quickly shift the race back to a toss-up. Experts like David Brockman highlight that the convention 'bump' usually fades shortly after the events, meaning that any surge in support is unlikely to be permanent. Therefore, the strong optimism seen in media narratives around Harris needs to be tempered with a realistic understanding that the upcoming election remains highly competitive and unpredictable.