The maritime vision 72. Agricultural Commodities Explained | Ivo Sarjanovic | Ex-Cargill Trader
Mar 15, 2025
Ivo Sarjanovic, an ex-Cargill trader and current professor of agricultural commodities, shares his wealth of experience in trading and market dynamics. He highlights key differences between traders and merchants and unpacks the complexities of agricultural commodity markets. The conversation dives into how biofuels and geopolitical factors impact pricing, the supply chain from farmer to consumer, and the crucial role of negotiation. Ivo also emphasizes the promising career opportunities in AgTech and commodity trading, inspired by his family's agricultural roots.
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Agricultural Commodity Groups
- Agricultural commodities are split into two groups: grains and oilseeds, and softs like coffee and sugar.
- Grains and oilseeds dominate volume with maize, wheat, and soybeans as largest traded commodities globally.
Grain Exporters and Buyers
- Grain exporters like U.S., Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine dominate maize, but buyers are diverse.
- Soybean supply and demand are highly concentrated with Brazil, U.S., Argentina as suppliers and China and EU as major buyers.
Price Volatility Drivers
- Supply volatility is affected strongly by weather and geopolitics, while demand volatility is influenced by biofuels policies.
- Biofuels create arbitrary demand shifts, connecting agriculture to energy markets with mandates impacting prices.