Unexpected Value - Poker · Daily Fantasy · Sports Betting #105: Simply Simtacular
Jun 13, 2023
Steve Buzzard, a DFS product leader and analyst at Stokastic, joins Jordan Cooper to unveil the powerful new Stokastic Sims tool. They explore how this tool enhances both beginner and advanced players' strategies in daily fantasy sports. Steve reveals insights on lineup ownership, projection accuracy, and the difference between optimal and winning lineups. Listeners will learn practical tips for improving their returns, avoiding common pitfalls, and understanding how simulations can transform their approach to DFS.
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Generation-Three Simulation Shift
- Stochastic Sims represents a new "generation three" tool that simulates contests rather than just player projections or optimizers.
- Successful sims build on high-quality projections and optimizers and model ownership and correlations to find high-upside, low-ownership lineups.
Simulate A Representative Field
- Build a contest-like pool of lineups to represent ownership before running sims; ownership drastically alters ROI outcomes.
- Treat sims as comparing your entries to a field, not as absolute ROI for standalone lineups.
Judge Lineups, Not Solo Players
- Evaluate lineups as complete combinations not isolated players; a value player can enable expensive studs within a lineup.
- Use sims to reveal why certain high-priced players look optimal only when paired with specific low-cost values.
