UBS On-Air: Market Moves Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 43)
Aug 14, 2025
Burkhard Varnholt, an economist and investment strategist, shares insights on the key factors influencing the Fed's monetary policy, such as labor market trends, inflation, and political pressures. He discusses the recent decline of the dollar, comparing it to historical drops and emphasizing its impact on U.S. exporters. Additionally, Varnholt offers advice on navigating turbulent markets and the importance of long-term strategies and global diversification amid geopolitical tensions.
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Political Push On Fed Can Backfire
- Stephen Miron represents a political push to influence Fed policy and lower short-term rates.
- That could produce rate cuts that paradoxically lift long-term yields, undermining intended stimulus.
Inflation Cooling Yet Still Sticky
- U.S. inflation is cooling but remains sticky around ~3%, above the 2% target.
- Strong labor market and positive earnings revisions support economic resilience and a continued bull market thesis.
Focus On Fundamentals And Diversify
- Keep a cool head and focus on earnings and interest rates rather than noise.
- Diversify globally because U.S. valuations are premium and rest-of-world has catch-up potential.