More or Less: Behind the Stats What are the chances of an asteroid hitting earth in 2032?
29 snips
Mar 22, 2025 Astronomers recently identified a potentially dangerous asteroid, 2024 YR4, measuring between 40 and 90 meters. Initially, the odds of it hitting Earth in 2032 spiked from 1% to 3%, igniting public concern. As Tim Harford discusses, tracking these celestial threats is essential, especially as probabilities can rapidly change. Historic asteroid encounters provide context for understanding the risks involved. The conversation emphasizes advancements in monitoring techniques, reinforcing the global need for vigilance against such cosmic dangers.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Asteroid Discovery and Initial Impact Estimates
- On December 27, 2024, astronomers discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, causing widespread concern about a potential Earth impact.
- Initial estimates suggested a 1% chance of impact, later rising to 3%, sparking media frenzy and public anxiety.
Asteroid Impacts: Rare but Real
- While asteroid impacts are rare, they do happen, as evidenced by the 2013 Chelyabinsk event and the 1908 Tunguska event, both in Russia.
- These incidents highlight the potential for significant damage, even from relatively small asteroids.
Asteroids: Leftovers of Solar System Formation
- Over 1.4 million asteroids and comets are cataloged in our solar system, with some potentially nearing Earth.
- These asteroids are remnants from the solar system's formation, primarily located between Mars and Jupiter.