Ep 144: Mark Montgomery on Defending Taiwan (Boiling Moat #2)
Sep 17, 2024
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Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at FDD, shares insights on Taiwan's defense amidst growing tensions. He discusses the necessity of a strategic military stance to counter China's aggression, emphasizing innovative resource prioritization. He shares lessons from naval service and the importance of missile defense. Montgomery critiques shortsighted military decisions while exploring advanced sensor technologies and their implications for U.S. readiness, stressing the urgent need for effective deterrence.
The shift in U.S. military perception of China since 2005 underscores the urgent need for better alignment between military assessments and national security strategies.
Mark Montgomery's insights reveal that despite recognizing the Chinese threat, resource allocation for Pacific defense efforts has been inconsistent and inadequate.
Taiwan's military advancements highlight its increased defense spending and capabilities, yet challenges remain in enhancing reserve forces and operational integration.
Deep dives
Understanding the China Threat
The timeline of U.S. military perception regarding China shifted around 2005 to 2008, marking the transition from viewing China as a manageable threat to recognizing it as a serious national security concern. Initially, the U.S. military believed that it could shape China's actions, but classified intelligence began to reveal a more stark reality of a rising threat. Despite this recognition, the national security narrative took nearly a decade to reflect the urgency of this situation effectively, with many senior officials from various administrations remaining unaware of China's intentions. This gap in understanding highlights the challenge in aligning military assessments with broader governmental strategies, which often lagged behind operational realities.
Navigating Policy Perspectives
Mark Montgomery's work in the Senate under Senator McCain provided a unique vantage point on how policy discussions regarding China evolved over time. It became clear that while military leaders acknowledged China's threat, the Senate reflected mixed opinions on resource allocation to address this issue, leading to ineffective deterring measures. McCain was particular about the need for substantive action to confront China, emphasizing the importance of resourcing properly instead of rhetorical commitments alone. The unfulfilled promises of the past administrations regarding prioritizing the Pacific showcased a systemic issue where the actual defense allocations fell short of what was necessary to address the growing crisis in that region.
Taiwan's Defensive Capacity
The podcast discusses Taiwan's military readiness and highlights significant strides the island has made in increasing defense spending and acquiring necessary weapons systems. Taiwan has been gradually shifting its focus towards more practical and functional military capabilities while improving its defense budget to meet regional threats. Despite these improvements, structural issues remain, such as the need for a more effective reserve force and better integration of operational tactics. Lessons from other nations’ defense models, such as Finland and Israel, emphasize the need for a robust, well-trained civilian reserve force to effectively deter aggressive maneuvers by China in the event of conflict.
Challenges in Maritime Warfare
The center of gravity in a potential conflict over Taiwan focuses on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy's capabilities, particularly in a cross-strait invasion scenario. Commanding dominance over the waterway is essential for any military action involving Taiwan, which emphasizes the necessity of countering China's naval presence. Montgomery stresses that sinking PLA vessels will be crucial in establishing U.S. air superiority over Taiwan, allowing for operational success during a conflict. A multi-faceted approach, including hybrid warfare techniques and advanced maritime systems, is vital to engaging and neutralizing the growing naval threats posed by China.
Escalation and Long-Term Conflict
The discussion shifts to the implications of a sustained military engagement with China, particularly post-invasion scenarios where hostilities continue despite initial military successes. Ensuring a robust logistics and support framework for U.S. forces is paramount to managing casualties and maintaining operational readiness during prolonged engagements. Montgomery highlights the potential for significant casualties in an extended conflict with estimates ranging from 7,000 to 30,000, depending on various strategic decisions and allied cooperation. This scenario raises concerns about whether the American populace is prepared for such losses amid a conflict that many may not fully understand, further complicating national commitment to the defense of Taiwan.
Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at FDD and contributor to The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, joins the show to talk about Taiwan, tensions in the South China Sea, and more.