UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Still not hiring'
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Nov 21, 2025 The latest US employment report reveals significant issues, including poor survey response rates and a misleading seasonal adjustment. While payrolls increased, the unemployment rate also climbed, raising eyebrows in the markets. Notably, youth job-seeking trends point towards a 'no hiring, no firing' situation. Meanwhile, middle-aged job security could sustain consumer spending. The UK experiences weak retail sales, especially in clothing, and shifts from Black Friday may skew purchasing trends. Central bank decisions remain uncertain, influencing investor sentiment.
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US Employment Data Has Growing Reliability Issues
- US September employment data quality has deteriorated due to falling survey response rates and seasonal adjustment quirks.
- These issues make headline payrolls and unemployment moves less reliable for policy or market decisions.
September Seasonal Adjustments Skew Payrolls
- September payrolls often show an expected uptick because seasonal adjustment tends to distort that month.
- The unemployment rise mainly reflected higher participation rather than broad job losses.
Unemployment Rise Reflects More Jobseekers Not Mass Layoffs
- The unemployment rate rose to its highest since 2021, driven partly by more people entering the labour market.
- That suggests a 'no hiring, no firing' dynamic, with job seekers increasing but limited new hires.