Trump against the world – Can diplomats handle him?
Nov 20, 2024
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Peter Ricketts, a retired senior diplomat and former UK National Security Adviser, discusses the ramifications of Donald Trump's potential return to power. He highlights Trump's zero-sum approach and its impact on global diplomacy, including threats of economic dislocation and turmoil. Ricketts addresses NATO's response to advanced missile capabilities amid rising tensions, while examining the challenges of US-China trade policies. He emphasizes the political complexities of alliances and the need for astute diplomacy in a changing geopolitical landscape.
Donald Trump's potential return to power could destabilize NATO's unity, particularly affecting defense costs and international relations with allies.
The evolving dynamic between the UK and EU post-Brexit necessitates a collaborative approach to navigate new geopolitical challenges and trade relations.
Deep dives
NATO and the Ukraine Conflict
The recent decision by NATO countries to provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles marks a crucial escalation in the ongoing conflict with Russia. This development follows a pattern where Western nations have hesitated to enhance Ukraine's military capabilities, previously with tanks and fighter jets. The conversation highlights how this is a test of NATO's resolve, particularly regarding members like Germany, which have shown reluctance to fully support the Ukrainian cause. As front-line states like Poland advocate for stronger action against Russia, the urgency for NATO to appear united and robust is increasingly evident.
Donald Trump’s Impact on Global Politics
The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency raises significant questions about the future of NATO and international relations. Trump's America First policy could lead to increased tariffs and strained trade relations, particularly with countries like China. It is expected that Trump may push for the UK and other NATO allies to shoulder more defense costs but might simultaneously seek a 'peace initiative' to demonstrate his effectiveness. How allies respond to Trump's unpredictable nature will be critical in maintaining a cohesive Western front and balancing their respective interests.
The Future of EU and UK Relations
The dynamic between the UK and EU is evolving, especially with figures like Keir Starmer seeking to reset relationships in a post-Brexit context. Starmer's interactions with European leaders, particularly Emmanuel Macron, highlight a collaborative approach, acknowledging both countries as major military powers. There are concerns regarding trade tariffs from the US, complicating the UK's position as it navigates its identity post-EU membership. The changing landscape suggests that the UK may need to redefine its role, finding a place within the fluctuating structure of the EU and addressing diverse geopolitical challenges ahead.
Donald Trump operates in a zero sum world. If he’s going to win, you have to lose. So what will his brutal negotiation methods mean for global diplomatic corps who are already rocked by our turbulent times?
Trump is promising an immediate end to the war in Ukraine and threatening global tariffs on US imports, ranging up to 60% on goods from China. Trade wars and worldwide economic dislocation loom. What can leaders do to plan and prepare for his return to power?
Gavin Esler talks to Peter Ricketts – retired senior diplomat, crossbench peer, former UK National Security Adviser and former chair of the UK Joint Intelligence Committee – about the global impact of Trump 2.0.
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Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.