Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military, discusses how Russia's treatment of its soldiers is affecting the war in Ukraine. The podcast covers topics such as Russia's perception of the conflict, their military objectives, potential missile launches, recruitment strategies, and understanding an adversary's military power.
The Russian military's culture struggles with issues of brutality, corruption, and hazing, which have resurfaced during the war in Ukraine, impacting their strategic failures.
Russia's defense industrial base has ramped up production and received ammunition from North Korea, giving them an advantage in sustainment and precision strikes, but their reliance on shell companies and external suppliers indicates potential weaknesses.
Deep dives
Analysis of the Ukrainian counter-offensive
The Ukrainian counter-offensive, which has been ongoing for four months, has seen limited gains in the South in Zabirija. However, the Russian military's complex and active defenses have slowed their progress. The Ukrainians have also launched deep strikes on Russian sites behind the lines, causing damage. The Russians, on the other hand, have launched several localized offensives in Donetsk and Luhansk, making slow progress in encircling the town of Abdifka. However, they have suffered significant losses in terms of equipment and personnel, which raises questions about the strategic significance of their actions.
Russian military industrial capacity and equipment replenishment
Russia has ramped up its defense industrial base, producing more artillery shells, repairing armored vehicles at a faster rate, and increasing missile production. They have also received ammunition from North Korea. While this allows them to sustain operations and launch precision strikes, their reliance on shell companies and external suppliers indicates potential weaknesses. Ukraine, on the other hand, depends on support from its partners for artillery shells. While Russia holds an advantage in terms of sustainment and production capacity, Ukrainian counter-battery fire, successful drone usage, and Western support mitigate this advantage to some extent.
Toxic culture and challenges in the Russian military
The Russian military's culture has long struggled with brutality, corruption, and hazing. Efforts were made to address these issues, but they have resurfaced during the war in Ukraine. The decision to hide their invasion plans from soldiers and a lack of proper intelligence assessment contributed to their strategic failures. The Russian military now faces challenges with integrating new recruits, including mobilized civilians and prisoners, who bring violence and substance abuse issues. Discipline and morale are affected, but the Russian military still maintains operational capacity, albeit not at an optimal level.
Russian military objectives and concerns for the future
Russia's current military objectives include acquiring territories like Luhansk and Donetsk. They also pose a threat with missile launches and attempts to grind down Ukrainian air defenses. While some concerns exist over whether Russia will conduct another mobilization, it is more likely that they will continue to rely on their existing forces. Russia's military strategy and capabilities should not be underestimated, as they continue to adapt tactics and weapons based on lessons learned. However, the ability of both Ukraine and Russia to sustain this war remains a critical factor.
In Ukraine, where war with Russia grinds on, the dominant question has become: can one side outlast the other? This is especially true as both sides face another grueling winter.
One thing Russia has in ample supply is men. But how it treats its soldiers is having an effect on the battlefield, explains Dara Massicot, who has studied the Russian military for years, first at the U.S. Defense Department and later at RAND and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Foreign Affairs Deputy Editor Kate Brannen sat down with her to discuss how the human dimension of this war provides clues about where it might be headed next.