The Downballot

Primary turnout forecasts a Dem blowout

Sep 24, 2026
Sara Kohen, an Omaha attorney and school administrator running for the Omaha Public Power District board, discusses public power, utility costs, renewable energy, coal-to-gas transitions, and the impact of AI data centers. The conversation also explores a striking historical link between primary turnout and November House results, including a projection of a potential Democratic landslide.
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INSIGHT

How The National Primary Is Constructed

  • The synthetic national primary combines each state’s party primary turnout into one nationwide comparison.
  • Researchers prioritize gubernatorial races, then Senate and other statewide, House, legislative, or county contests when necessary.
INSIGHT

Primary Votes Measure Enthusiasm Better Than Registration

  • Actual primary participation captures independents and enthusiasm better than voter-registration totals.
  • Registration can remain unchanged for years, while casting a primary ballot shows who is actively turning out.
INSIGHT

Turnout Shifts Solve The Solid South Problem

  • Comparing midterm-to-midterm shifts solves the distortion caused by the historic Democratic dominance of Southern primaries.
  • This method produces an unusually close relationship with House popular-vote shifts going back to 1942.
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