Saxo Market Call
Special: Q4 Quarterly Outlook
Oct 2, 2024
Peter Garnry, a SaxoStrat expert on macroeconomics, discusses the impact of interest rate cuts and the upcoming US elections. Althea Spinozzi, head of Fixed Income Strategy, emphasizes the value of short-duration bonds in a slowing economy. Charu Chanana, head of FX Strategy, highlights the US dollar's volatility and the potential of the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategies, analyzes the outlook for precious and industrial metals amid geopolitical tensions and discusses the implications of US election outcomes on commodity prices.
41:01
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Quick takeaways
- The US has started its rate cut cycle, positively impacting equities and potentially reviving underperforming sectors like real estate and utilities.
- Political factors such as the upcoming US elections are set to create significant volatility in FX markets, particularly affecting the US dollar and Japanese yen.
Deep dives
US Rate Cut Cycle Insights
The discussion highlights that the US has officially begun its rate cut cycle, indicating a shift in monetary policy dynamics. This transition follows a period of increased volatility and a cautious recovery in technology stocks. The macroeconomic environment is described as calm, suggesting favorable conditions for risk assets such as equities and high-yield bonds. A key point made is that while concerns about a possible recession persist, the indicators largely favor a slow landing scenario rather than a deep downturn.
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