Episode #277: Sean Turnell, an author, economic advisor, and former political prisoner, graced a podcast for the third time to share his insights on Myanmar's deteriorating financial situation. The military's relentless pursuit of hard currency has resulted in rampant resource exploitation, serving either the generals' personal wealth or the purchase of more arms (along with lining their cronies’ pockets) despite international sanctions aiming to curb their financial avenues.
Turnell describes the junta's economic policy as practically non-existent, with no strategy for education, health, or foreign investment. A soaring inflation rate, a significant increase in military spending, and a decrease in health and education spending exacerbate the crisis for the Burmese people. In addition, the regime's unusual encouragement of private sector debt default shakes the very foundations of the country’s capitalist system. Turnell notes that the junta's focus seems to be on the daily scramble for foreign exchange, a shortsighted approach with no vision for the future.
As for the NUG and other resistance groups, innovative financial strategies have been employed, from international war bonds to virtual banking. However, the challenge remains in navigating the funds safely without falling prey to the military or violating anti-money laundering laws. The use of cryptocurrency has emerged as a notable, albeit experimental, solution to these challenges.
Despite the current turmoil, Turnell holds a hopeful view that a democratically elected government could restore the economy to its pre-coup state within a year. He praises the expertise of young Burmese policymakers around the globe, whose knowledge and skills are pivotal to Myanmar's economic recovery. Turnell's confidence in Myanmar's potential rebound hinges on the belief that these competent individuals will lead the way once the military's grip is finally loosened.