RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Tariff Tangle Reignited
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Jul 11, 2025 The conversation kicks off with lighthearted holiday anecdotes before diving into serious economic insights. Tariff announcements bring complexity to international trade, impacting market dynamics and commodity prices. Discussions on the looming potential of a government shutdown reveal political pressures within Congress. The debate between momentum and beta offers traders fresh strategies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum are gaining traction, with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin as regulatory frameworks for digital assets evolve.
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Tariff Deadlines Extended, Market Unfazed
- The tariff announcements failed to materialize as initially expected, with deadlines pushed back from July 9 to August 1.
- The market seems to have shrugged off immediate tariff worries due to hopes for resolution and deals.
Fed Rate Cuts Uncertain, Labor Market Nuance
- The Fed is divided about cutting interest rates, with some open to July and others expecting no cuts this year.
- Labor market data suggests caution since unemployment rate may overstate labor market health due to discouraged workers and stagnant wages.
Elevated Government Shutdown Risk
- The odds of a U.S. government shutdown in late September are elevated, around 60-65% given unresolved appropriations and political divisions.
- Market participants generally do not price in a shutdown risk yet, but it will impact market seasonality later this year.