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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

What investors expect from Trump

Dec 9, 2024
David Mericle, Chief US Economist at Goldman Sachs Research, dives into what investors expect from a potential second Trump administration. He discusses significant concerns over universal tariffs and how these fears influence market pricing. The talk explores investor reactions to recent tariffs on imports and anticipated immigration policies. Additionally, Mericle analyzes sentiments on the 2017 tax cuts and the implications of government spending cuts, all while offering insights into the long-term economic landscape and Federal Reserve projections.
20:06

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Investors are worried about potential universal tariffs, with 60% seeing it as the top macroeconomic risk for 2025.
  • A stable immigration flow is projected under Trump, with a decrease in unauthorized immigrants but increased deportations anticipated.

Deep dives

Investor Concerns About Tariffs

Investors express significant concern regarding the potential for universal tariffs as indicated by a recent survey, with 60% highlighting it as the top macroeconomic risk for 2025. Although the idea of a universal 10% or 20% tariff on all goods is not the baseline expectation, it reflects the anxiety surrounding trade policies that could drastically affect the economy. The majority of investors anticipate additional tariffs primarily targeted at imports from China and certain auto imports, a sentiment supported by the recent introduction of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. This suggests that while investors are not firmly expecting a universal tariff, they recognize its potential as a serious risk that could influence market dynamics.

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