Goldman Sachs Exchanges What investors expect from Trump
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Dec 9, 2024 
David Mericle, Chief US Economist at Goldman Sachs Research, dives into what investors expect from a potential second Trump administration. He discusses significant concerns over universal tariffs and how these fears influence market pricing. The talk explores investor reactions to recent tariffs on imports and anticipated immigration policies. Additionally, Mericle analyzes sentiments on the 2017 tax cuts and the implications of government spending cuts, all while offering insights into the long-term economic landscape and Federal Reserve projections.
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Investor Fears
- Investors' biggest worry is a universal tariff on all goods.
- This tariff, while not the baseline expectation, poses a significant risk.
Tariff Expectations
- Investors don't expect a universal tariff, but see it as a risk.
- Most expect tariffs on Chinese goods and autos.
Immigration Predictions
- Investors and Goldman Sachs predict lower net immigration under Trump.
- They anticipate around 750,000 per year, mainly authorized.