David Mericle, Chief US Economist at Goldman Sachs Research, dives into what investors expect from a potential second Trump administration. He discusses significant concerns over universal tariffs and how these fears influence market pricing. The talk explores investor reactions to recent tariffs on imports and anticipated immigration policies. Additionally, Mericle analyzes sentiments on the 2017 tax cuts and the implications of government spending cuts, all while offering insights into the long-term economic landscape and Federal Reserve projections.
Investors are worried about potential universal tariffs, with 60% seeing it as the top macroeconomic risk for 2025.
A stable immigration flow is projected under Trump, with a decrease in unauthorized immigrants but increased deportations anticipated.
Deep dives
Investor Concerns About Tariffs
Investors express significant concern regarding the potential for universal tariffs as indicated by a recent survey, with 60% highlighting it as the top macroeconomic risk for 2025. Although the idea of a universal 10% or 20% tariff on all goods is not the baseline expectation, it reflects the anxiety surrounding trade policies that could drastically affect the economy. The majority of investors anticipate additional tariffs primarily targeted at imports from China and certain auto imports, a sentiment supported by the recent introduction of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada. This suggests that while investors are not firmly expecting a universal tariff, they recognize its potential as a serious risk that could influence market dynamics.
Impact of Immigration Policy
Under the anticipated second Trump administration, projections suggest that net immigration will average around 750,000 people annually, which is a notable decrease from the surge to 3 million in 2023. Investors generally align with this estimate, with most expecting numbers between 500,000 and 1 million, signaling a sustained concern about immigration policies. Although deportations are likely to increase, the overall authorized immigration flow is expected to remain stable. This equilibrium indicates that while immigration policy shifts could lower the number of unauthorized immigrants, they may not drastically alter the overall landscape compared to pre-pandemic trends.
Expectations for Tax Cuts
Most investors anticipate the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with about two-thirds expecting them to be fully continued. Additional proposals for various types of tax cuts have circulated, yet the general consensus is that any new tax reductions will be modest, estimating an impact equivalent to approximately 0.2% of GDP. The backdrop of fiscal sustainability raises concerns about the feasibility of substantial tax cuts, as the current federal fiscal deficit is concerningly high. While proposals may emerge to satisfy political demands, the cautious expectation is that any new tax policy will be tailored to maintain economic stability rather than incite significant change.
Goldman Sachs Research’s Chief US Economist David Mericle shares what investors are expecting under the second Trump administration and how those policy assumptions are reflected in market pricing.
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