Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Echoes of 2007 In Mushrooming Private Credit Boom? | Patrick Perret-Green on Tricolor & First Brands Bankruptcy, Asian Disinflation, And Why U.K. Duration Looks Attractive
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Oct 1, 2025 Patrick Perret-Green, a macro strategist and founder of PPG Macro, joins to discuss pressing economic issues and credit markets. He warns about the frothy condition of private credit reminiscent of pre-2007 crises and highlights reclassifications in commercial lending. The conversation addresses alarming trends in Asian disinflation and the dynamics of U.S. housing. Patrick also dives into the opaque nature of private credit, global monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, providing insightful perspectives on systemic vulnerabilities.
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Hidden Surge In Non‑Bank Lending
- Bank-reported loans to the real economy are flat while lending to non-banks has surged, masking true credit growth.
- Patrick warns this reclassification hides risk and creates froth similar to pre-2007 credit expansion.
Private Credit Echoes 2007 Risks
- Private credit has become large, opaque, and resembles early CDO-era behavior with weak due diligence.
- Patrick cautions the market treats private credit as safer than it really is and compares current dynamics to 2006‑2007.
First Brands And Tricolor As Warning Signs
- Patrick recounts First Brands and Tricolor losses as examples of opaque lending and possible fraud in private credit deals.
- He likens banks' unexpected losses to early signs banks missed in 2007 on CDO exposures.
