How AI Could Reorient American Politics

Nov 20, 2025

David Beiler, a public opinion researcher and former data journalist at The Washington Post, delves into AI's profound impact on American politics. He highlights the widespread skepticism about AI across party lines and discusses the unique pyramid model of voter and elite attitudes. The conversation explores potential Democratic strategies around transparency and taxation of AI gains. They also dissect whether AI is causing job losses or merely reflecting post-pandemic trends, raising concerns about a future political crisis driven by AI's pervasive influence.

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INSIGHT

AI Cuts Across Partisan Lines

Americans across parties share skepticism about AI and openness to some regulation despite partisan stereotypes.
This cross-cutting concern positions AI to reshape politics because it's not highly polarized yet.

INSIGHT

Elite Divide Shapes Party AI Stance

Republican and Democratic voters show similar attitudes toward AI use and worry about job loss and privacy.
Differences emerge mainly among elites: Republicans under Trump favor less regulation and focus on China, while Democrats lack a unified governing philosophy.

ADVICE

Push Transparency And Redistribution

Democrats should push transparency from AI companies to reveal how models work and their effects.
Progressives should also consider redistribution mechanisms to share AI efficiency gains with displaced workers.

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I was at a conference earlier this week giving a talk about politics. These things can be kind of fun. I get up on a stage, do my song and dance, and show folks a bunch of charts.

As I was getting into the elevator, one of the attendees stepped in beside me and I asked him how he was enjoying the conference. He sighed and said, “Well, everything is about AI. Even the sessions that are supposed to be about other things end up being about AI.”

His comment struck me because that’s what so many topics can feel like these days, whether it’s the workplace and economy, social media and entertainment, our own homes and vehicles, or even matchmaking and intimacy — and of course politics and geopolitics.

Some of the political debates over AI have faded into the background as the Trump administration’s laissez-faire approach to regulation has set the tone in Washington and Democrats have had little to no power to challenge it, if they wanted to. But it’s probably a good bet that political debates over the role of Artificial Intelligence in society won’t remain in the background for long.

Recently AI stocks have been in pullback mode and chatter about a bubble has reemerged. “Is it a blip, a dip, a pullback or the beginning of the end?” reads one headline. And lately, hardly a day goes by without another company announcing a reduction in its white collar job force.

Polling also suggests Americans are somewhere between skeptical and pessimistic about the future of AI. They see it as doing more harm than good when it comes to people’s ability to think creatively, have meaningful relationships with each other, and make difficult decisions. And importantly, this is not an area where Americans are highly polarized along party lines either.

The combination of those two things: the possibility of a crisis or displacement in which AI is seen as central and the lack of clear party divisions means that the new technology may be in a unique position to reshape politics.

That is the topic of today’s episode with David Byler, public opinion researcher and VP at National Research Group. We also get into questions about the use of AI in polling and a “Good Data, Bad Data, or Not Data?” question from a listener.