Unexplainable How hot could the world get?
Sep 25, 2024
Umair Irfan, a correspondent at Vox, delves into the complexities of climate modeling and what it reveals about rising global temperatures. He discusses the challenges scientists face in predicting future climate scenarios and the significance of different modeling approaches. The conversation also explores the controversial concept of solar geoengineering and its potential implications. Irfan emphasizes the urgent need for diverse and reliable climate predictions to inform policymakers and address the critical state of our planet.
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Climate Model Variations
- Climate scientists use complex models to predict future warming, but these models vary in their predictions.
- These variations arise from different assumptions about factors like cloud behavior, leading to a range of warming estimates.
Model Democracy
- The IPCC historically used a "model democracy" approach, weighting all models equally, to achieve a consensus on warming predictions.
- This approach considered the varying strengths of different models and fostered international collaboration.
Hot Models and Controversy
- "Hot models" predict significantly higher warming (5+ degrees Celsius) than other models, raising concerns about their accuracy and potential policy implications.
- One hot model's co-author even suggested solar geoengineering.