Deep Background with Noah Feldman

The Future of COVID-19 with Marc Lipsitch

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Jan 27, 2022
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INSIGHT

Continued Variant Emergence

  • New COVID-19 variants will likely continue to emerge due to widespread infection and viral evolution.
  • The characteristics of future variants are difficult to predict with certainty.
INSIGHT

Viral Fitness Criteria

  • Viruses prioritize transmission, first by targeting naive hosts and then by evolving to infect immune hosts.
  • Escaping immunity, especially for infection and transmission, becomes increasingly important for viral fitness.
INSIGHT

Virulence Evolution

  • The common belief that viruses always evolve to become milder is not necessarily true.
  • Viruses prioritize replication, and their impact on host health is secondary.
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