Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager, and Tom Digenan, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Specialists, discuss recent rise in yields, cooling off of growth, and potential economic and market impacts of war in the Middle East.
Expectation of economic growth cooling off in Q3 will lower bond volatility.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is not a significant risk to broader economic and market views.
Deep dives
Economic Growth Cooling Off
The podcast discusses the expectation of economic growth cooling off after a period of rapid growth in Q3. This cooling off is seen as a positive development, as it will lower bond volatility. Factors contributing to the cooling off include the tightening of financial conditions, the rise in mortgage rates impacting housing, student loan repayments, and the auto worker strike. The Federal Reserve also signals a reluctance to further increase rates.
Middle East Conflict and Oil Prices
The podcast explores the potential economic and market impacts of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. While there is concern about a sharp rise in oil prices and its negative effects on economic growth and inflation, the podcast suggests that the current situation should be manageable. The involvement of Iran would pose a greater risk, but as of now, there is no direct evidence. The podcast concludes by stating that the conflict is not a significant risk to their broader economic and market views.
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Economic Growth, Market Impacts, and the Middle East Conflict
Hear from top investment professionals from the UBS Asset Management’s Multi-Asset Team, this month featuring Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, and Tom Digenan, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Specialists.
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