Russian Roulette What Will Trump 2.0 Mean for the War in Ukraine?
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Nov 15, 2024 Michael Kimmage, Chair of the Department of History at Catholic University and former Obama State Department member, dissects the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on the Ukraine conflict. He addresses the complexities of U.S. foreign policy and peace negotiations, emphasizing the geopolitical dynamics with Russia and China. Kimmage highlights Russia's ability to adapt economically amid sanctions, explores NATO aspirations, and the critical need for U.S. military support for Ukraine—shedding light on the risks of strained Western unity.
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Negotiation Prospects
- Trump's focus on ending the Ukraine war creates pressure for other governments.
- A negotiated settlement is unlikely due to Trump's unpredictability and the war's complexity.
China's Role
- China's involvement in any potential peace negotiation is crucial given its relationship with Russia and Ukraine.
- The potential involvement of China could further complicate negotiations.
Putin's Motivation
- Putin might not want to negotiate because Russia is currently in a favorable position despite high casualties.
- Russia has made recent advancements and doesn't show strong signs of social discontent.