Michael Kimmage, Chair of the Department of History at Catholic University and former Obama State Department member, dissects the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on the Ukraine conflict. He addresses the complexities of U.S. foreign policy and peace negotiations, emphasizing the geopolitical dynamics with Russia and China. Kimmage highlights Russia's ability to adapt economically amid sanctions, explores NATO aspirations, and the critical need for U.S. military support for Ukraine—shedding light on the risks of strained Western unity.
The unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy approach makes it unlikely for the war in Ukraine to see constructive resolution under his administration.
Russia's military advantages and lack of motivation for compromise complicate prospects for a negotiated settlement amidst divergent U.S. and European interests.
Deep dives
Impact of Trump's Return on U.S.-Russia Relations
The return of Donald Trump to the White House raises questions about the future of U.S.-Russia relations, particularly concerning Trump's campaign promises regarding the war in Ukraine. Trump has indicated intentions to end the war quickly, a claim his advisors view skeptically due to the complexities involved in the conflict. Neither Trump nor his proposed appointees, such as Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, have demonstrated a coherent strategy for navigating negotiations or addressing the territorial disputes central to the war. Additionally, the unpredictability of Trump's policies complicates the likelihood of a constructive approach to Russia, as prior experiences showcase his lack of firm direction on the issue, making resolution appear unlikely under his administration.
Challenges of Negotiating Peace in Ukraine
The prospects for a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine conflict appear dim, largely due to Russia's current military advantages and lack of motivation to compromise. Despite significant casualties, Russia's military operations have made incremental territorial gains, creating a perception of stability and opportunity for continued aggression. The potential for the Trump administration to facilitate peace negotiations is further hindered by its lack of experienced diplomats and the reality that many European countries may not align with U.S. interests if they perceive a poor deal with Russia. Consequently, without a unified international stance or meaningful concessions from Russia, initiating peace talks may be counterproductive.
Putin’s Stance and Russia’s Global Strategy
Vladimir Putin's motivations in relation to the U.S. are complex—while he may seek a friendly government in Washington, he also remains committed to undermining Western alliances. His continued diplomatic ties with populist movements globally demonstrate a desire to fragment the transatlantic alliance, promoting an international order that diverges from traditional Western values. Observers suggest that Putin's cautious optimism surrounding Trump also stems from previous disappointments during the first Trump administration, which did not yield the expected concessions. Overall, this suggests a persistent tension where Russia's interests consistently clash with U.S. strategies, further complicating any potential for meaningful dialogue.
The Evolution of U.S. Foreign Policy Under Trump
Should the Trump administration pursue a more transactional approach to foreign policy, it may exacerbate tensions not only with Russia but also within Europe. The anticipated rift between Trump and European leaders could provide opportunities for Russia to exploit divisions, emphasizing the need for cohesive transatlantic policies. A significant challenge for the new administration will be reconciling competing interests regarding China, Iran, and Ukraine, which can complicate its relationship with Moscow. Ultimately, unless a common ground is established, U.S.-Russian relations are likely to remain contentious, reinforcing Russia's role as a global spoiler against the backdrop of a fractured liberal order.
Max and Maria speak with Michael Kimmage to take stock of the impact of the recent U.S. elections on the future of the war in Ukraine, and U.S. policy towards Russia.
