UBS On-Air: Market Moves Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - What Exactly is Trumponomics?
Apr 14, 2025
Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, breaks down the complexities of 'Trumponomics' in this insightful discussion. He examines the recent shifts in U.S. trade policy and their impact on the equity and bond markets. With investor uncertainty lingering, he offers clarity on tariff developments and their implications for market dynamics. Draho also navigates the outlook for the upcoming week, highlighting essential economic data, corporate earnings, and the need for transparency in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Tariff Pause Is Temporary
- Tariffs were paused for 90 days to allow negotiation time but the 10% general tariff remains.
- Exemptions on semiconductors and electronics are temporary, indicating tariffs will resume soon.
Markets Reprice US Risk Premium
- Equity gains and rising treasury yields reflect reduced recession risk but higher risk premiums.
- US assets are repricing with higher risk premiums amid uncertainty about US economic policies.
Trumponomics Lacks Clear Unifying Theme
- Trumponomics lacks a clear unifying economic ideology unlike Trump 1.0.
- Tariffs as tax hikes conflict with tax cuts, creating unclear policy goals for growth and trade.