#101 Larry McDonald: The Probability Of Sustained Stagflation Is Rising

Larry McDonald (@convertbond), author of the New York Times bestseller “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers,” and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a weekly independent macro research platform focusing on global political and systemic risk with actionable trade ideas, joins Julia La Roche on episode 101.

0:00 Welcome Larry to the show

1:00 Macro picture 

2:15 The probability of sustained stagflation near-term is rising

3:12 What people are getting wrong about inflation 

5:32 Stagflation 

9:20 One-year breakevens 

10:25 Nvidia, and playing AI

14:20 Idiotic dislocations in the market 

18:40 Indexing creating a bubble 

23:15 Regional bank risks 

27:25 Buy into capitulation selling 

29:17 Economic picture today 

34:00 Short high yield, long MBS trade

37:20 Companies sitting on cash are seeing stocks hold up (for now) 

39:34 Zombies 

42:00 What will drive 2-3 trillion out of growth and into value

47:00 Shift to stagflation

50:30 Most exciting trade of our lives