Why I’m Buying Large Multifamily in 2026 (Commercial Real Estate Outlook)

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Jan 22, 2026

The podcast dives into the state of the commercial real estate market, highlighting the dramatic drop in prices due to rising mortgage rates and oversupply. It lays out a compelling bull case for a recovery in 2026, fueled by market stabilization and a potential boost in rents. However, risks remain, including refinancing challenges and supply gluts. The host shares practical tips for savvy investors, emphasizing quality assets and the importance of navigating this turbulent landscape strategically. It's a mix of caution and opportunity for future buyers.

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INSIGHT

Commercial Market Decline By Asset Class

Commercial real estate values fell substantially from 2022 to 2024 and multifamily is down roughly 15–25% nationally.
Office values fell more deeply while retail and self-storage held up slightly better.

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INSIGHT

Small Cap Rate Changes Crush Values

Cap rates rose with Treasury yields and small increases in cap rates cause large valuation drops.
Higher risk-free yields made multifamily returns comparatively less attractive, pushing prices down.

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INSIGHT

Debt Structure Shocked Demand

Tightened underwriting and lower LTVs reduced buyer demand and made deals harder to finance.
Adjustable-rate commercial loans resetting to much higher rates compressed cash flow and forced some sales.

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Why Commercial Real Estate Matters Now

00:45 • 2min

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Has Commercial Real Estate Crashed?

03:02 • 2min

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Why Multifamily Values Fell

Bull Case for a 2026 Recovery

19:27 • 4min

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Bear Case and Remaining Risks

23:44 • 2min

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Dave's 2026 Outlook: Selective Recovery

25:54 • 48sec

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Outlook for Other Commercial Subsectors

26:42 • 3min

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Why Bottoming Is Opportunity

Four Practical Tips for Buyers

33:14 • 7min

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Dave's Personal Buy Box

• Mentioned in 3 episodes

The Multifamily Millionaire

Brandon Turner

We’re always talking about residential real estate. But what about that “other” market, the one worth $24 trillion? It’s no secret that commercial real estate has had one of its toughest stretches in many years, with many calling it an outright “crash.” If we’ve already reached the bottom, could large multifamily and other assets be poised for a huge turnaround in 2026?

Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen multifamily, office, retail, and even self storage prices tumble due to several factors: rising mortgage rates, rate adjustments on commercial debt, higher cap rates, tighter lending criteria, and more supply coming online. This “perfect storm” has put significant downward pressure on commercial property values, causing forced selling and scaring many investors away.

But these same challenges could create opportunity, especially if prices stabilize over the next 12 months. We break down the variables at play, the most compelling bull and bear cases for these assets, and how investors can protect themselves with “scared” real estate analysis.

Dave is ready to take advantage, but which asset is he betting on?

In This Episode We Cover

Dave’s 2026 predictions for the commercial real estate market

Whether large multifamily values could bounce back in 2026

The “perfect storm” that caused the steep decline in large multifamily prices

The bull and bear cases for a commercial real estate turnaround

The asset class that is least likely to recover from the commercial “crash”

Four tips for investors looking to buy multifamily properties in the next 12 months

And So Much More!

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