This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Iran-Israel ceasefire – Will Trump's truce hold?
Jun 25, 2025
Julie Norman, a Politics and International Relations professor at UCL, dives into the recent Iran-Israel ceasefire, heavily influenced by Trump's diplomacy. She discusses its immediate violations and the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions. The conversation also explores Israel’s political climate and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of U.S. involvement. Ultimately, they grapple with whether this fragile truce could lead to genuine peace or remain just a temporary pause in ongoing tensions.
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Fragile Israel-Iran Ceasefire
- The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is extremely fragile and has already seen violations from both sides.
- The situation remains uncertain whether this pause will lead to peace or continuation of conflict.
Iran's Calculated Restraint
- Iran's retaliatory options were limited, making continued military conflict unsustainable for its government.
- The Iranian government acted as a rational actor seeking to find an off ramp to the conflict.
Nuclear Weapons: Deterrence or Threat?
- Iran believes nuclear weapons act as a strong deterrent as seen with countries like Pakistan and North Korea.
- Israel views a nuclear Iran as an existential threat, highlighting a major regional divide in perceptions.