Olga Oliker, Crisis Group's Europe and Central Asia director, discusses the implications of Trump's potential return for European security and the Ukraine war. Michael Wahid Hanna, U.S. director, delves into U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, highlighting the Israel-Palestine conflict. Renata Segura covers how Trump's policies could affect Latin America, particularly immigration. Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao examine the prospects for U.S.-China relations, exploring tariffs, Taiwan, and broader geopolitical dynamics.
Trump's proposed approach to the Ukraine conflict raises concerns over potential concessions that could compromise European security and NATO unity.
The Middle East could see a significant shift in dynamics under Trump, particularly regarding Israel's policies toward Palestinians and relations with Arab states.
Potential changes in U.S.-China relations under Trump may increase tensions over Taiwan while complicating trade dynamics through imposed tariffs.
Deep dives
Impact of Trump's Return on Ukraine and Europe
Donald Trump's potential return to the White House raises significant questions about his approach to the ongoing war in Ukraine and relations with Europe. He has suggested that he could quickly negotiate a resolution by dealing directly with Vladimir Putin, but the specifics of such a deal remain unclear. The prevailing thought within some of Trump's circle is that concessions could involve land for peace, but this fails to address Russia's broader objectives of regional influence and control over Ukraine. European NATO members are concerned that any shift in U.S. military support could embolden Russia to pursue further territorial ambitions, potentially destabilizing the region.
Middle East Challenges Under Trump
The dynamic in the Middle East could shift dramatically with Trump's return, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict and the war in Gaza. Trump has historically shown a strong alignment with Israel, which raises fears that he would empower aggressive Israeli policies toward the Palestinians. While he may seek to end the ongoing war and claim credit for any resolution, his lack of support for Palestinian rights and interests could exacerbate tensions. His administration would likely prioritize normalized relations with Arab states, but these aspirations could conflict with Israel's expansionist agenda in the West Bank and Gaza.
Trump's Stance on Latin America
In Latin America, Trump's approach could revert to aggressive deportation policies targeting undocumented migrants, significantly impacting cooperation with regional governments. His administration may enhance efforts to pressure nations to accept deported individuals, potentially leading to strained diplomatic relations. Moreover, Trump's foreign policy toward Venezuela may oscillate between maximum pressure tactics and pragmatic engagement aimed at controlling migration and increasing oil imports. The potential for U.S. softening towards leaders like Nicolás Maduro poses challenges for U.S.-backed democratic transitions in the region.
U.S.-China Relations and Taiwan Tensions
Trump's second term may dramatically reshape U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding tariffs and military support for Taiwan. His commitment to imposing steep tariffs on Chinese exports reflects a belief in using economic pressure to address trade imbalances, though this could complicate any potential for a diplomatic settlement. On Taiwan, his administration might adopt a transactional stance demanding increased defense spending, which could strain U.S.-Taiwan relations. The risk of miscalculation remains high, as both the U.S. and China navigate this complex interplay in a way that could spark increased tensions over Taiwan's sovereignty.
Navigating Challenges in the Indo-Pacific
A Trump administration would likely face significant challenges in maintaining alliances in the Indo-Pacific amid a rising China. While European allies are already adapting to lessen reliance on U.S. security commitments, Asian partners will need to develop their own defense strategies due to the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy. The Philippines and other regional stakeholders may experience pushback in their relations with a more isolationist U.S., dependent on Trump's worldview. Thus, opportunities for improved relations with China could emerge if regional countries perceive a diminishing U.S. commitment to traditional alliances and security arrangements.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does that means subjugating Kyiv to Russian influence? What does a more transactional Washington portend for NATO and European security? Richard and Michael then look at how a Trump presidency might approach Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, its confrontation with Iran and Middle East politics more broadly. Renata lays out what to make of Trump’s stated plans for mass deportations and his next administration’s Latin America policy. Richard then speaks with Ali and Amanda about China policy under the next Trump administration, the prospect of tariffs on Chinese exports and flashpoints around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.