The HC Commodities Podcast Trading: the hidden $3trillion dollar opportunity with Antti Belt
Nov 12, 2025
Antti Belt, a Partner at BCG and research fellow at the Henderson Institute, dives into the world of trading and the untapped $3 trillion profit potential for CEOs. He discusses why energy and resource companies shy away from trading arms, citing board misconceptions and talent scarcity. Antti also highlights the performance advantages of trading during crises, contrasts traditional trading with tech-driven newcomers, and outlines the exciting future of trading opportunities in sectors like real estate and cloud computing.
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Boards Misread Trading Risk
- Boards commonly misunderstand trading as pure risky speculation rather than structured short-to-medium-term optimization.
- Antti Belt says trading profits can be more stable than upstream earnings and boards lack the capability to evaluate trading properly.
Trading Delivers Material EBITDA Uplift
- Executives agree trading can add about 2–3 percentage points of EBITDA or ROA for many businesses.
- Antti Belt highlights that value exists but many lack permission or capability to capture it.
Define Trading By Time Horizon
- Define trading as short‑to‑medium term optimization (up to ~2–3 years) and exclude pure hedging from this scope.
- Use this framing to decide which commercial activities qualify as trading within your firm.