HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on the mortgage rate outlook for the rest of 2025
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Aug 1, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst known for his in-depth knowledge of housing market trends, shares insights on the future of mortgage rates. He discusses how Federal Reserve policies and economic indicators will shape rates through 2025. The conversation highlights the relationship between 10-year yields, jobless claims, and inflation. Optimistically, Mohtashami touches on improving mortgage spreads and the interplay between consumer spending and political influences, offering a comprehensive look at the complicated mortgage landscape.
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10-Year Yield Drives Mortgage Rates
- The 10-year Treasury yield largely controls mortgage rates through their long-term relationship since 1971.
- Better mortgage rate spreads contribute significantly to keeping mortgage rates below what bond yields alone would suggest.
Mortgage Spreads Cushion Rates
- Mortgage spreads have room to improve, giving mortgage rates a cushion even if yields rise.
- Better spreads currently imply mortgage rates about 6.75%, benefiting the housing market.
Two Rate Cuts Forecast for 2025
- Logan maintains his forecast of two Fed rate cuts in 2025 amidst tariff-related delays.
- Slowing consumption growth and goods inflation create a complex environment for Fed decisions.