Lawfare Daily: Digging Deep on the State of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict with Joel Braunold
Sep 17, 2024
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Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, discusses the volatile state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He delves into Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition challenges and intricate political maneuverings shaping current events. The conversation highlights escalating tensions in Gaza and the West Bank, while exploring Israel's external relations with Iran and the U.S. Braunold emphasizes the humanitarian crisis and the complexities of achieving peace amid ongoing geopolitical pressures.
Prime Minister Netanyahu's leadership faces significant public frustration and calls for accountability following the security failures of October 7.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has seen increased violence, exacerbated by aggressive actions from right-wing factions threatening hopes for a two-state solution.
Israel's multifaceted security concerns, influenced by external threats from Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, complicate decision-making in a politically charged environment.
Deep dives
Israel's Domestic Political Landscape
The current political environment in Israel is characterized by instability and dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Netanyahu's leadership. Following the security failures experienced on October 7, public frustration has mounted, leading to calls for accountability from various military and intelligence leaders. Despite this outcry, Netanyahu has managed to maintain his position, navigating through political turmoil while avoiding a commission of inquiry that could undermine him. The situation is further complicated by the social contract concerning hostage scenarios, as the perception of mishandling hostage negotiations has shifted public sentiment against the government.
Tensions in Israeli-Palestinian Relations
The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict has witnessed a resurgence of violence, particularly in the West Bank, as right-wing factions push for intensified actions against Palestinian authorities. The current government views this as an opportunity to undermine the Palestinian Authority and potentially preclude any two-state solutions. The escalation of violence has led to significant casualties, further straining Israeli-Palestinian relations and prompting fears of an impending intifada. Meanwhile, the role of international actors remains limited, as ongoing hostilities continue to overshadow potential peace negotiations.
Security Concerns amid Regional Dynamics
Israel grapples with a multifaceted security landscape that includes threats not only from Hamas in Gaza but also from Hezbollah in the north and Iranian influence throughout the region. The assassination of prominent figures within Hamas symbolizes Israel's willingness to take aggressive measures and reflects a strategic push to re-establish deterrence against threats posed by these groups. National security considerations increasingly focus on how to neutralize these threats without spiraling into broader conflict, which complicates the decision-making process in a politically charged environment. Compounding these anxieties is the consensus within the Israeli establishment that requires maximum responsiveness to Iran's regional ambitions.
Impending U.S. Political Dynamics
The geopolitical landscape influences Israeli policies significantly, especially as U.S. presidential elections approach. The Biden administration has shifted to a more critical stance on Israel's actions, linking discussions around foreign policy to broader considerations regarding U.S. domestic politics. In contrast, the counter-narrative from the Trump administration emphasizes unwavering support for Israel, creating a dichotomy in how different administrations may approach the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This shifting dynamic complicates Israel's strategy, as leveraging U.S. support is essential amidst growing tensions at both the domestic and international levels.
Humanitarian Crisis and International Response
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire, exacerbated by continued military actions and a lack of effective international intervention. Despite some limited efforts, such as successful vaccination campaigns, the daily reality for Gazans involves immense suffering due to ongoing airstrikes and the destruction of infrastructure. The international community is largely disengaged, struggling to keep Gaza in the public consciousness as other conflicts take precedence. This neglect raises profound concerns about the long-term implications for Gaza and the feasibility of future peace efforts, leaving many residents to grapple with an uncertain future.
For today’s episode, Lawfare senior editor Scott R. Anderson sat down with Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, for a deep dive on the current state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in these last few weeks before what could be a pivotal U.S. election.
They discussed the state of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, recent developments relating to al-Haram al-Sharif and the West Bank, the state of Israel’s external relations with Iran, the United States, and the broader region — and what it all means for the increasingly stagnant conflict in Gaza.
