UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Delays and retreats'
Jul 7, 2025
US President Trump's delay on new consumer taxes shifts potential inflation spikes to January. This postponement impacts not only consumers but investors as well. The discussion includes how trade dynamics with BRICS countries could shift in response. Additionally, the importance of upcoming retail sales data in Europe is highlighted, suggesting that all eyes are on the international market reactions.
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Delayed US Tariffs Impact
- The US additional tariffs initially set for July 10 were delayed until August 1, pushing consumer impact potentially into next year.
- Stockpiling before Christmas may delay the inflation spike for consumers until January if no policy retreat occurs.
Trump’s Tariff Uncertainty
- Trump's history of reversing trade tax decisions leads investors to expect a possible retreat.
- Uncertainty around policy specifics limits the immediate market reaction to tariff announcements.
Tariff Threats on BRICS Unclear
- Trump threatens 10% tariffs on countries aligning with anti-American BRICS policies, though the group lacks coherence.
- It remains unclear what triggers these tariffs and what legal authority backs them, causing ambiguity.