The issue of global debt has been a source of concern for policymakers, economists, and investors alike. While it's easy to get lost in the numbers and statistics, it's important to understand the implications of the growing debt on the economy. How can investors make informed decisions and optimize their investment portfolios to minimize the risks associated with global debt?

In this episode, Rusty talks with Phillip Toews, Founder and CEO of Toews Asset Management. Phillip's management strategies focus on creating "investor-friendly" products designed to meet investors' economic and behavioral needs. Phillip is also the Founder and CEO of the Behavioral Investing Institute, an organization devoted to helping advisors manage investor behavior through market challenges.

Live at the Orion Ascent Conference, Phillip talks with Rusty about the hidden implications of record global debt and what investors should be thinking and doing about it. They also speak about why tactical investments make sense for many investors, not only because of the potential market in economic conditions but also due to behavioral reasons. Moreover, Phillips explains the words bezzle, bezzle burst, and bezzle fizzle and why they should be considered part of the investing lexicon.

Key Takeaways

[03:21] - Phillip's professional history and the origins of Toews Asset Management.
[05:03] - The strategies that complement Toews Asset Management's models.
[07:14] - What Phillip's presentation, The Hidden Implications of Record Global Debt, is about.
[09:29] - Why no one talks about global debts today.
[11:30] - The implications of debt on the economy.
[13:03] - How Phillip explains the chart showing U.S. wealth relative to GDP.
[13:58] - What bezzle burst and bezzle fizzle mean.
[15:44] - How to restore balance from high debt.
[20:34] - Phillip's outlook on financial oppression, bezel burst, and bezzle fizzle.
[25:58] - Why behavioral portfolios can be an all-season investment strategy.
[29:57] - What investors should look for in an adaptive fixed income strategy.
[33:10] - Phillip's thoughts on trend following.
[36:49] - An overview of the Behavioral Investing Institute.
[38:03] - What the Toews Asset Management national holiday is all about.
[40:07] - Phillip's favorite investment strategy.
[42:08] - How Phillip maintains his physical and mental health to perform at a high level.
[43:33] - What Phillip learned from his mentors.
[44:50] - Phillip's recommendations for content.

Quotes

[08:10] - "We are at a full stop. Unprecedented levels of global debt are taking place in the government sector. The U.S. and many vast economies have around 100% of GDP and about 150% of GDP if you combine non-financial corporations and private debt." ~ Phillip Toews

[10:45] - "When you look at the consequences of debt, economists tend to underestimate the effect of the buildup of debt on the positive implications on the economy when it's growing. Then they always tend to underestimate the impact during falling markets as well." ~ Phillip Toews

[27:11] - "The behavioral portfolio is a construct we built as a part of our behavioral investing institute that attempts to not leave the ranch. It attempts to stick to its relatively conventional construct in terms of your allocation to stocks and bonds." ~ Phillip Toews

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0673-OPS-3/7/2023

Week #19, 2024