HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on mortgage rates and the pressure on Powell
19 snips
Jul 3, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a seasoned lead analyst known for his keen insights on housing market trends, joins the conversation. He discusses the recent call for an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the implications of job data on economic policy. The pair explore how mortgage rates might shift in today’s economy, influenced by Fed strategies and labor market statistics. Mohtashami also dives into the relationship between job openings and mortgage rates, shedding light on common misconceptions in the housing market.
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Fed Still Behind Neutral Policy
- The Federal Reserve is not at neutral policy yet, keeping the labor market tight and inflation expectations high.
- If labor data weakens, bond yields may drop, putting pressure on the Fed to adjust policy.
ADP Report Less Influential Than Job Openings
- The ADP jobs report is the least important data point compared to job openings and BLS data.
- Labor force growth is crucial as fewer people looking for work can keep unemployment rates low despite moderate job creation.
Budget Drives Desire for Rate Cuts
- Political pressure to lower interest rates is driven largely by budget concerns, not just economic recession fears.
- Lower Fed funds rates reduce government interest payments, easing fiscal strain.