Hear This Idea #84 – Dean Spears on the Case for People
Nov 1, 2025
Dean Spears, an economic demographer and co-author of 'After the Spike,' dives into the complexities of global fertility trends. He discusses why many countries face declining birth rates, countering common affordability arguments with deeper insights. Spears explores how historical factors influenced family size and investigates the potential impacts of AI on parenting. He also considers whether we should embrace depopulation or seek stabilization, ultimately framing the conversation around the intrinsic value of people in our future.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Depopulation Is The Likely Global Trajectory
- Global depopulation is now the most likely future because birth rates have fallen below replacement in many countries.
- Two-thirds of the world already live in countries with fertility below replacement, so a global decline will follow once the whole world averages under two.
Peak Population Timing Is Uncertain
- Experts agree birth rates will likely fall below replacement globally, but timing is uncertain and depends on fertility trends.
- The UN projects peak population around 2084 while other groups estimate the 2060s–2070s range.
Low Fertility Has Gone Global
- Low fertility is no longer confined to rich countries; many large, lower-income countries now have below-replacement fertility.
- India, Latin America, East Asia and much of Europe already report fertility at or below two children per woman.
