NAB Morning Call Waiting for the numbers
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Nov 17, 2025 Rodrigo Catril, a Senior NAB economist and expert in FX and macro analysis, shares his insights on market dynamics ahead of major data releases. He discusses investor caution tied to upcoming non-farm payrolls and NVIDIA earnings. Rodrigo highlights the recent dip in the Yen following Japan's soft GDP and delves into Canada's CPI trends affecting the Bank of Canada's stance. He also comments on Europe's revised growth forecasts and the euro's muted response, illustrating a fascinating snapshot of current global economic sentiment.
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Market Caution Before Major Data And Earnings
- Markets are in a cautious holding pattern ahead of big data and earnings, notably US payrolls and NVIDIA results.
- Large-cap earnings like NVIDIA can move whole markets because hedge funds reduce positions pre-reporting.
Empire State Survey Signals Repeated Strength
- The New York Fed Empire State survey has shown repeated positive readings, suggesting a sustained pickup rather than a one-off.
- Underlying sub-indices like new orders, shipments and capex plans point to improving conditions.
Fed Likely To Wait For Clearer Data
- Fed officials caution moving slowly on rate cuts due to data uncertainty and elevated downside risks to employment.
- With limited incoming data (shutdown-related gaps), policymakers are likely to wait for clearer November readings in December.